The closer they get to having a bomb, and the closer they are perceived to be, you can expect Iran's neighbors to start acting on the assumption that Iran is going to have a bomb.

--Israeli Ambassador to the United States Sallai Meridor, arguing that Iran's nuclear program could spark a nuclear arms race in the Middle East.

The FBI is preparing to end its years-long investigation into the 2001 anthrax mailings, but the bureau has yet to obtain conclusive evidence linking its sole suspect in the case to the chain of powder-tainted letters that killed five people and sowed fear of biological terrorism into the public consciousness, the New York Times reported Sunday (see GSN, Dec. 19, 2008).

(Jan. 6) - U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia Jeffrey Taylor outlines the FBI's allegations against Bruce Ivins in an August press briefing (Nicholas Kamm/Getty Images).

Federal investigators spent years focusing their suspicion on Stephen Hatfill, a former virologist at the U.S. Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases at Fort Detrick, Md., until agents finally ruled out his involvement (see GSN, Nov. 26, 2008).

Investigators later reviewed evidence and honed in on Bruce Ivins, a microbiologist at the Fort Detrick laboratory who secretly suffered from alcohol abuse and psychological problems, the Times reported. Ivins committed suicide last July as federal prosecutors prepared charges against him.

Various damning facts turned up by the investigation indicate that Ivins conducted the mailings, according to Brad Garrett, a retired FBI agent who assisted in the probe's early phases. “Does that absolutely prove he did it? No,” he said, adding that without a trial and confession from the perpetrator, “you’re going to be left not getting over the top of the mountain.”

Upcoming audits of the federal investigation by Congress and the National Academy of Sciences could shed new light on the case, potentially addressing arguments by Ivins's former friends and colleagues that he was innocent (see GSN, Oct. 27, 2008).

The Army squelched an attempt by USAMRIID officials to launch their own review of the case.

Fledgling forensic efforts begun in the aftermath of the mailings determined that the anthrax strain in the envelopes was common in U.S. laboratories, suggesting that the attacks were the work of a biological defense scientist possibly seeking to draw attention to bioterrorist threats.

“It is very likely that one or more of you know this individual,” the FBI wrote in a message to the 40,000-member American Society of Microbiology in early 2002, adding that the mailer could have produced the anthrax during “off-hours in a laboratory.”

Nancy Haigwood, one of Ivins's colleagues, responded to the call by raising concerns about the scientist. She later told the Times that an e-mailed photo of Ivins showed him handling anthrax without gloves, suggesting the "hubris" of a potential attacker. The Army later learned that Ivins committed another safety breach by secretly trying to clean up a laboratory anthrax spill in late 2001 and failing to notify his superiors of the accident.

“I was afraid of this man,” Haigwood said. “I was convinced he had done it, and I was afraid he’d send me an anthrax letter.”

After setting their sights on Ivins beginning in 2006, they learned that he raised concerns about his own mental health in e-mails; he said he "felt like a passenger on a ride" during episodes of paranoia and that he felt "a few feet away" from his desk "watching" himself work.

John Ezzell, an anthrax expert and another former colleague of Ivins, said that Ivins possessed the knowledge to carry out the attacks. “He was in charge of producing large quantities of wet spores for research. So if anybody could have produced a lot of spores without arousing suspicion, it was him,” Ezzell said.

As Ivins came under closer FBI scrutiny and lost his laboratory security clearances, his mental instability increasingly surfaced, according to his wife.

"You know, he’s been incredibly, incredibly stressed, because of the way he’s been hounded by the FBI,” Diane Ivins told local police in a recorded interview. “They’ve always treated him as if he was guilty, and I just felt that he couldn’t take it anymore.”

During a group therapy session, Ivins said that he would be charged with five murders and suggested that he might kill himself and others.

In a letter left in his bedroom, his wife urged him to try to turn his life around.

“I wanted to write down how I felt because I loved him -- you know, I wanted him to come back and get healthy again so we could continue. He was retiring in September, and we were going to travel and enjoy our adult children finally," she said (Scott Shane, New York Times, Jan. 4).

She added that the letter said "I knew he was innocent of the anthrax letters and I never doubted him for a second," the Associated Press reported (David Dishneau, Associated Press/Google News, Jan. 6).

Israel's ambassador to the United States has warned that Iran's controversial nuclear activities are "the most critical issue for America and the Western world" and could ignite a nuclear arms race in the Middle East, Newsweek reported Saturday (see GSN, Dec. 24, 2008).

(Jan. 6) - Israeli Ambassador Sallai Meridor recently urged the United States and other nations to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons (Brendan Smialowski/Getty Images).

The United States and other Western powers have urged Iran to halt its uranium enrichment program, which can produce nuclear power plant fuel but also a key nuclear bomb ingredient. Tehran insists its nuclear work has no military component.

"The closer they get to having a bomb, and the closer they are perceived to be, you can expect Iran's neighbors to start acting on the assumption that Iran is going to have a bomb," Israeli Ambassador Sallai Meridor said, adding that Iran would acquire enough low-enriched uranium this year to ultimately power one weapon (see GSN, Dec. 3, 2008).

To produce fuel for a weapon, however,Iran would need to further process its low-enriched material through its centrifuges again.

"Even if Iran just scaled up the quantity of its uranium, is it safe to assume that the Arab countries would stay calm and do nothing? Every Gulf country is all of a sudden looking for civilian nuclear energy. And you have Turkey, and Egypt is on the same track. So we are on the verge of a cascade of instability and a potential cascade of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East," Meridor said.

Asked why Israel considers civilian nuclear programs in neighboring states to be threats when countries around the world are pursuing similar efforts, he said: "Ask yourself why these oil-rich countries want to go in this direction. I can understand it of countries with no other resources. But we're talking about countries that have vast oil reserves."

The ambassador warned that Israel would launch strikes on Iranian nuclear sites unless the United States and other Western powers took swift action. He urged the international community to pressure Iran to halt its enrichment work by curtailing the country's ability to import refined oil products, exploiting what he called the Tehran's "most serious vulnerability."

World powers must also consider additional, wider sanctions on Iran, Meridor said.

"You would have to consider something like what went on in Iraq in terms of controlling what they spend their oil exports on, making sure that the returns are directed to food and other necessary things and not to the Revolutionary Guards. Yet all the pressures so far have not been enough to offset oil at $100 or $120 a barrel. But if oil stays between $40 and $50, it's going to challenge them," he said (Newsweek, Jan. 3).

Two local officials believe that the chemical weapons disposal plant in Anniston, Ala., should not be shuttered when it finishes destroying the site's stockpile of lethal warfare materials, the Associated Press reported last week (see GSN, Jan. 5).

(Jan. 6) - Munitions Handler Chris Moore prepares to destroy the final VX-filled land mine last month at the Anniston Army Depot in Alabama (U.S. Army Chemical Materials Agency).

Nearly 1,000 jobs would be lost when the U.S. Army's Anniston Chemical Agent Disposal Facility completes operations, according to Calhoun County Commission Chairman Eli Henderson. "We have all those people out there, experts on hand, resources and money tied up in it," Henderson, whose county houses the plant, told the Anniston Star.

The incinerator began operations in 2003 and last month completed destruction of all nerve agent weapons stored at the Anniston Army Depot. It is set next to begin eliminating mustard blister agent.

The plant has experienced no major mishaps and could be used to process blister agent stored at other U.S. sites, Henderson said. Such chemical materials would pose no greater threat than other materials that today are moved along U.S. roadways, he argued.

Anniston Mayor Gene Robinson supports Henderson's position, which is opposed by Alabama Governor Bob Riley and other officials.

Federal and state environmental rules and hazardous waste permits would have to be revised to allow the transportation. Putting the material on the road opens the door to shipping mishaps, air quality troubles and stigmatization of the Anniston area, according to Calhoun County Commissioner Robert Downing.

"I can't understand why we would want to continue to suffer the negative perception of our community," he said (Associated Press/Birmingham News, Jan. 1).

Iran is likely to be the greatest Middle East policy challenge for U.S. President-elect Barack Obama when he takes office this month, President George W. Bush's national security adviser warned yesterday (see GSN, Jan. 6).

Stephen Hadley told the Associated Press that Washington must pursue economic penalties against Iran as "leverage" aimed at forcing a halt to potential nuclear-weapon development activities. Iran insists its nuclear work is strictly peaceful.

Under Bush, the United States has worked to "shore up and store up leverage" that Obama must use to win compliance from Iran, Hadley said.

Hadley did not address whether the United States should engage Iran in direct diplomacy, but he said it "would be foolish to talk without leverage, because talking and negotiating without leverage won't get you a deal that will advance your interests" (Riechmann/Baldor, Associated Press/Google News, Jan. 7).

Meanwhile, six Middle Eastern states debated how to address Iran's disputed nuclear activities at a meeting on Dec. 30 and 31, the Washington Times reported (see GSN, Nov. 4, 2008).

"I believe there are red lines that all [Gulf Cooperation Council] countries agree on. ... There is a consensus that Iran shouldn't come out as a nuclear power," said Mustafa al-Ani, a political analyst at the Gulf Research Center in Dubai. "But how to deal with it is the issue. ... Is it a regional problem or an international one?"

The council consists of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Council members view Iran's nuclear program as the "final straw" following disputes with Tehran on other issues, said Saudi political science professor Waheed Hamza Hashem.

Still, the Arab countries hope to avoid military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities because Tehran could retaliate against U.S. assets in their territories. Iran and other Middle Eastern states have assumed "interdependence, where they will all lose or all turn out to be winners. ... The issue is, who is going to win more," Hashem said.

Iranian political analyst Saeed Laylaz added: "They don't like to see any military confrontation in the region," but GCC states also "don't like to see a very big Iran, a very strong Iran."

Iran's neighbors hope that Obama's incoming administration would engage Iran diplomatically and discourage Tehran from acting aggressively in the region, according to Qatari political expert Mohammed Saleh Missfer.

"I believe the Gulf Arab countries will have a clear and defined position when the American diplomacy towards Iran becomes clear," he said. "Because even U.S. diplomacy is changing between containing and cooperating" (Jumana al-Tamimi, Washington Times, Jan. 7).

Pakistani officials yesterday denied any support for the recent terrorist attacks in Mumbai, refuting stepped-up allegations from India, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, Jan. 6).

Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said yesterday that the sophistication of the late-November attacks demonstrated that "some official agencies" in Pakistan must have been involved. Islamabad quickly dismissed the charge.

"The government of Pakistan emphatically rejects the unfortunate allegations leveled against Pakistan by the prime minister of India," said a Pakistani Foreign Ministry statement.

"Instead of responding positively to Pakistan's offer of cooperation and constructive proposals, India has chosen to embark on a propaganda offensive," the statement added. "It will not only ratchet up tensions but occlude facts and destroy all prospects of serious and objective investigations into the Mumbai attacks."

"Pakistan is a victim of terrorism. ... Pakistan is not a state sponsor of terrorism," it continued. "Pakistan would not allow its soil to be used for acts of terrorism at home and abroad."

India delivered a dossier to its nuclear rival this week providing some results of its Mumbai investigation, including information suggesting that the attackers trained in Pakistan, began their operation in Pakistan and spoke to handlers in Pakistan during their three-day rampage (Agence France-Presse/Channel News Asia, Jan. 6).

India has historically accused Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence of supporting militant organizations in the disputed Kashmir region, including the Lashkar e-Taiba group that New Delhi has argued is responsible for the Mumbai attacks. ISI chief Lt. Gen. Ahmed Shujaa Pasha, however, denied last month that his agency backed the attacks or operated outside of civilian control.

"We may be crazy in Pakistan, but not completely out of our minds," he said in a Der Spiegel interview published yesterday. "We know full well that terror is our enemy, not India" (Sebastian Abbot, Associated Press/Google News, Jan. 7).

India's defense minister today complained that Pakistan has not reacted adequately following the Mumbai attacks and warned of the consequences.

"Even after [Nov. 26], there is no serious attempt to dismantle the terror outfits, and that is a major worry," said A.K. Antony, while threatening that India could take pre-emptive action to prevent future incidents.

"We will do everything to prevent this. For that we are examining all possible available options," he said (Nigam Prusty, Reuters, Jan. 7).

Kenya planned to send a cache of seized uranium abroad for analysis after the nation's measurement equipment failed to determine the full radiation level emitted by the material, the Nairobi Daily Nation reported yesterday (see GSN, Dec. 18, 2008).

Kenya has requested assistance from the International Atomic Energy Agency and the United States in dealing with the uranium, which Kenyan police uncovered in a smuggling bust last month, said Kenyan National Radiation Protection Board deputy chief Arthur Koteng.

Koteng suggested the uranium could be enriched and noted that Washington was "very interested in the matter."

“We can safely detect radioactivity of up to 1,000 Becquerel per kilogram, but tests showed it is above that and probably more than 2,000,” Koteng said, referring to a unit of measurement for radiation.

Koteng urged Kenya to bolster its efforts to counter nuclear material smuggling (Fred Mukinda, Nairobi Daily Nation, Jan. 6).

The Obama administration must take a firm line on North Korean denuclearization in order to ensure that the Stalinist state does not essentially make itself into a nuclear power by continually extending the process, two U.S. experts said in a policy report yesterday (see GSN, Jan. 6).

"During the past two years, the Bush administration has engaged in the direct bilateral diplomacy with Pyongyang that you advocate, but North Korea's intransigence, noncompliance, and brinksmanship have continued," Heritage Foundation analysts Bruce Klingner and Walter Lohman said in the paper. "Nor -- three years after Pyongyang agreed to do so -- have diplomats yet begun the real negotiations to discuss the elimination of nuclear weapons. This strategy has resulted in the abandonment of important principles, including enforcement of international law and attaining sufficient verification measures.

"North Korean denuclearization is a critically important goal, but how it is attained is equally important. Being excessively eager to compromise not only rewards abhorrent behavior, but also undermines the negotiating leverage that is necessary to get Pyongyang to abandon its nuclear weapons," the paper adds.

China, Japan, Russia, South Korea and the United States have spent years trying to persuade North Korea to give up its nuclear program. The regime is believed to hold several nuclear weapons and is suspected of providing assistance for nuclear programs in nations such as Syria (see GSN, Dec. 12, 2008).

Pyongyang in 2007 agreed to dismantle its nuclear operations in exchange for economic, diplomatic and security concessions from the other nations. However, the process has faced a number of obstacles, most recently Pyongyang's denial that it had agreed to allow inspectors to collect samples to verify the scope of the nation's nuclear operations and holdings.

The policy paper includes several recommendations for President-elect Barack Obama, who takes office Jan. 20. They include:

--Demanding that North Korea meet its requirement to provide a complete declaration of its nuclear program, covering the size of its arsenal, proliferation activities and other matters, before receiving full benefits under the second phase of denuclearization;

--Putting a strict verification system into place and requiring that North Korea rejoin the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and agree to place its nuclear sites under international safeguards; and

--Setting deadlines for progress that would carry significant penalties for noncompliance.

"North Korea must not be allowed to drag out the six-party talks indefinitely in order to achieve de facto international acceptance as a nuclear weapons state. Repeatedly deferring difficult issues in response to Pyongyang's intransigence is not an effective way to achieve U.S. strategic objectives," the paper says (Heritage Foundation release, Jan. 6).

The Obama administration might keep Christopher Hill as its lead negotiator on the North Korea nuclear standoff, Kyodo News reported today.

However, Hill might take on a new position focused on the issue rather than remaining assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs.

That job has reportedly been offered to Kurt Campbell, who covered the same region as a deputy defense secretary during the Clinton administration (Kyodo News/Breitbart.com, Jan. 7).

Departing U.S. Ambassador to Japan Thomas Schieffer said today be believed that Obama would give serious attention to the issue of North Korean abductions of Japanese citizens in past decades, Agence France-Presse reported.

Tokyo has refused to provide its portion of energy aid promised under the 2007 nuclear deal until Pyongyang resolves all questions regarding the status of the abductees. Japan has dismissed North Korea's claims that all victims have died or been returned.

"I am confident that when he thinks about it, President Obama will understand the issue," Schieffer told the Asahi Shimbun newspaper.

"I was briefed that the next administration will be fully aware of the importance of the abduction issue and continue making efforts toward its resolution," Kyoko Nakayama, the Japanese official in charge of the abduction issue, said after meeting with Hill in Washington (Agence France-Presse/Spacewar.com, Jan. 7).

Meanwhile, the Bush administration has not finished its diplomatic efforts to resolve the nuclear crisis, the Associated Press reported.

Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte was in Beijing today, where he was expected to meet with Chinese officials for talks on pressing Pyongyang to accept the verification protocol, the Yonhap News Agency reported (Yonhap News Agency, Jan. 7).

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission unveiled an expanded system Monday for recording the siting, usage and final disposition of materials that could help fuel a radiological "dirty bomb," Environment and Energy reported (see GSN, April 17, 2008).

The commission would require industrial, scientific and medical firms to provide the new National Source Tracking System with the status of any nuclear substance emitting at least 10 times the amount of radiation necessary to inflict permanent harm, referred to by the International Atomic Energy Agency as Category 1 and 2 radioactive materials.

Officials hope to incorporate eventually some less-hazardous Category 3 and 4 radioactive substances in the program.

The commission requires radioactive material permit holders to provide new information for the program by the end of January. Next year, officials expect to roll out an online system for obtaining and verifying licenses.

Commission personnel hit obstacles that forced an 18-month delay in activating the database, which Congress called for in 2005 legislation. A temporary tracking system established in 2003 was unable to record the specific whereabouts of radioactive materials or follow changes in their annually reported statuses, the Government Accountability Office said last year (see GSN, July; Katherine Ling, Environment and Energy, Jan. 6).

International nuclear industry giant Areva has applied for U.S. regulatory approval to build a uranium enrichment plant in Idaho, a site that would be just the second such facility in the United States, the company announced last week (see GSN, Dec. 18, 2008).

The firm hopes to build the advanced centrifuge plant near Idaho Falls, within several miles of the U.S. Idaho National Laboratory. The site would produce fuel to meet a projected increase in demand for U.S. nuclear power, and construction could begin in 2011 if Areva's application to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission is approved.

"We will continue working with the NRC, the people of Idaho and other stakeholders to realize this world class facility that will play an important role in helping fuel America’s existing and future carbon-free nuclear generating stations," Areva Enrichment Services President Sam Shakir said in a release.

The plant would add to the U.S. enrichment capacity which currently consists of a single facility operated by USEC Inc. in Paducah, Ky. (see GSN, June 12, 2007; Greg Webb, Global Security Newswire, Jan. 7).

The Bush administration has scheduled this month the release of Environmental Protection Agency draft guidelines that could dramatically loosen requirements for decontaminating sites affected by radiological incidents such as a "dirty bomb" attack, Risk Policy Report reported yesterday (see GSN, April 30, 2008).

The draft EPA Protective Action Guidance for Radiological Incidents could also significantly raise the minimum radiation level at which authorities are advised to offer bottled drinking water or other alternative water sources at sites affected by radioactive material dispersals.

According to one activist, opponents of the guidelines are concerned that the agency could put them into effect without delay through publication in "interim final" form in the Federal Register. The Homeland Security Department used the same strategy last year when it published response guidelines specifically addressing dirty bomb attacks (see GSN, July 29, 2008).

The potential last-minute move by the administration has alarmed environmental groups as well as some EPA and state officials. Critics, though, could press the incoming Obama administration to withdraw the measure if it is released as expected, according to the Report (Risk Policy Report, Jan. 6).