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North Korean leader Kim Jong Il might only have three years to live, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell is reported to have said recently (see GSN, March 16).
The Chosun Ilbo newspaper reported that Campbell, in a private February discussion with U.S. Ambassador to South Korea Kathleen Stephens and others in Seoul, said he believed that Kim would die before the end of 2013, according to the Associated Press.
Campbell rested this conclusion on the basis of health information, anonymous sources told the newspaper.
In January, Seoul's Korea Institute for National Unification predicted that Kim would not live past 2012.
Reports have circulated that Kim is readying to pass on authority to his youngest son, Kim Jong Un. The reclusive leader is widely thought to have had a stroke in summer 2008 and he has not had a healthy appearance when seen in public in recent months.
Reports of Kim's physical well-being are followed closely as it is feared that his sudden passing could upset the stability of the aspiring nuclear power (Associated Press/Google News, March 17).
Due to heightened U.N. Security Council sanctions and domestic missteps, Kim finds himself in one of the most precarious positions he has experienced since coming to power in 1994. As a result, he could attempt to ratchet up tensions with the outside world by way of military posturing, according to Reuters.
In the past, Kim has turned to saber rattling to boost the North's foreign stature. However, after years of such tactics, the international community is no longer so easily spooked by North Korean military posturing. Most analysts do no think that Kim would not take his posturing far enough to risk war.
A pledge to his countrymen to turn North Korea into a "strong and prosperous" state by 2012 also looks sure to fail.
"The failure of this (2012) campaign, and it can only fail, is only going to make the regime more likely to resort to diversionary military spectacles of some sort," said B.R. Myers, an academic who studies the nation's ideology.
Provocations by the North could include a third nuclear test, which could advance Pyongyang's efforts to build a functioning nuclear weapon. The country still does not have the ability, though, to field such a weapon. North Korea's aging bombers are not thought to be able to withstand an assault by the fighter aircraft of other East Asian nations and Pyongyang has a ways to go before it can attach a nuclear warhead to a missile.
Kim could also announce the reopening of the North's entire Yongbyon nuclear facility. Under multilateral nuclear negotiations, the site was shuttered. It was never disabled, as intended under a denuclearization agreement, and Pyongyang announced last year that it had resumed some weapons development work there.
Korea Institute for National Unification specialist Park Hyeong-jung said Pyongyang might also decide to tout its progress enriching uranium, which would be a second source for weapon-grade material in addition to the processed plutonium the nation already possesses (Jon Herskovitz, Reuters, March 17).
Echoing past projections, South Korean Defense Minister Kim Tae-Young said today that the North possesses 66 to 88 pounds of bomb-grade plutonium, which is believed to be enough to create six or seven weapons, Agence France-Presse reported (Agence France-Presse/Spacewar.com).
Another posturing tactic for North Korea would be to attempt to improve its medium-range missiles, which can now reach Japan and U.S. military installations in Guam, Reuters said (see related GSN story, today).
The Stalinist government might also try to export additional weaponry to countries such as Iran, which U.S. officials say is a serious concern.
"Its motivation to survive could lead it to engage in more dangerous proliferation activities when other sources of foreign exchange are no longer available," the International Crisis Group said in a report released this week (Herskovitz, Reuters).
Meanwhile, North Korean Deputy Foreign Minster Kun Sun Un traveled this month to Russia, where he met with high-level Kremlin officials, ITAR-Tass reported today.
"We plan to further step up traditionally friendly bilateral relations in the interest of our nations and to expand interaction to resolve international problems, including those of ensuring peace and security on the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia," Kun said following his trip.
Russia is a party to the stalled six-nation nuclear negotiations, which also include China, Japan, South Korea and the United States (ITAR-Tass, March 17).