No strong proof exists that Myanmar is developing a secret nuclear program with North Korean assistance, but reports from the South Asian state continue to be cause for concern, says an analysis published today by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (see GSN, Aug. 18).
"Some of the information that has leaked out of Burma appears credible, and in recent years other snippets of information have emerged which, taken together, must raise suspicions," Griffith University research fellow Andrew Selth wrote in the analysis.
Myanmar's military government could resort to extreme measures to stay in power, Selth wrote.
"Understandably, foreign officials looking at this issue are being very cautious. No one wants a repetition of the mistakes which preceded the 2003 Iraq war, either in underestimating a country's capabilities, or by giving too much credibility to a few untested intelligence sources," the report states.
Two Burmese defectors reportedly said their nation's government was building a nuclear reactor and a plutonium processing facility with support from North Korea, which has an active nuclear weapons program, according to the Australian Associated Press (see related GSN story, today).
It could be difficult to win any degree of transparency from Myanmar or persuade the junta to curtail any sensitive nuclear operations, Selth wrote, suggesting that the regime could not respond to threats of isolation.
"The exposure of a WMD program would probably see Burma expelled from ASEAN," he wrote, referring to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (see GSN, July 22). "Even if that were to occur, however, the generals seem prepared to see Burma return to its pre-1988 isolation and poverty, if that was the price they had to pay to remain masters of the country's and their own destiny" (Australian Associated Press/MSN.com, Aug. 24).