Analysts have concluded from an International Atomic Energy Agency report released yesterday that Iran has enough uranium to create a nuclear weapon if it were to continue enriching the material, the New York Times reported today (see GSN, Nov. 19).
(Nov. 20) -
Some experts believe that the low-enriched uranium produced at Iran's Natanz facility, shown above, contains enough material for a nuclear weapon if Tehran chose to enrich the material to weapon-grade levels (Getty Images).
Iran had manufactured 1,390 pounds of low-enriched uranium by early this month -- a 330-pound increase since an earlier report -- according to the U.N. nuclear watchdog, which monitors the country's Natanz enrichment complex. The United States and other Western countries have long suspected that Iran ultimately intends to develop a nuclear-weapon capability, but Tehran insists its nuclear program is strictly civilian in nature.
Iran's enrichment progress “underscored that they are marching down the path to developing the nuclear weapons option," said Siegfried Hecker, a nuclear expert at Stanford University.
Still, experts noted that for Iran to produce a nuclear weapon, the country would have to withdraw from international nonproliferation protocols, refuse future IAEA inspections, run the uranium through a new enrichment centrifuge configuration over a few months and then place the weapon-grade fuel in a warhead.
“They clearly have enough material for a bomb,” said nuclear physicist Richard Garwin. “They know how to do the enrichment. Whether they know how to design a bomb, well, that’s another matter.”
U.S. intelligence services have projected that Iran could build a nuclear weapon between 2009 and 2015. An assessment released last December indicated that the country had suspended its formal nuclear-weapon program in 2003, but the enrichment process is one of the most difficult steps toward developing a nuclear bomb, according to the Times (see GSN, Dec. 3).
"They have a weapon's worth," said Thomas Cochran, a nuclear scientist at the Natural Resources Defense Council. "It's a virtual milestone," he added (Broad/Sanger, New York Times, Nov. 20).
The Institute for Science and International Security, though, released a report yesterday stating that Iran would need several more months to acquire enough low-enriched uranium to use in a bomb.
The report also quotes an official familiar with IAEA operations as saying that Iran will probably begin operating 6,000 centrifuges by the end of 2008 (Diane Barnes, Global Security Newswire, Nov. 20).
The Bush administration yesterday expressed concern that the U.N. nuclear watchdog had again complained about Iran's refusal to cooperate fully with the agency's investigation into the nation's nuclear activities, Agence France-Presse reported.
"The Iranian government's failure to comply with the IAEA and U.N. is unfortunate and disappointing," said White House spokesman Gordon Johndroe (Agence France-Presse I/Google News, Nov. 19).
The State Department stressed that Washington does not dispute Iran's right to civilian nuclear development and urged Tehran to halt uranium enrichment in exchange for incentives offered by the five permanent U.N. Security Council members and Germany, the Xinhua News Agency reported.
"We don't object to Iran possessing peaceful nuclear energy," spokesman Sean McCormack told reporters. "We do have objections, of course, along with the Security Council and the P-5-plus-1 to their possessing the full fuel cycle."
"There's already a potential process in place for the Iranians, should they choose to accept it. It's the P-5-plus-1 process. It has the backing of the Security Council," he added (Xinhua News Agency, Nov. 19).
Iran said it was not required to provide additional support for the IAEA investigation into its nuclear ambitions, AFP reported yesterday.
"This report shows that Iran -- has fulfilled its legal obligation completely. Therefore having further expectation [of Iran] is illogical and cannot be carried out,"said Ali Asghar Soltanieh, Iranian envoy to the U.N. nuclear agency. "The message of (IAEA chief Mohamed) ElBaradei is that inspections have completely returned to normal and are continuing without impediment" (Agence France-Presse II/Spacewar.com, Nov. 19).
A high-level U.N. official said that the matter remains far from resolved: "We had gridlock before but then at least we were talking to each other. Now it's worse. There is no communication whatsoever, no progress regarding possible military dimensions in their program," the London Telegraph reported.
Iran "provided necessary access" for the U.N. nuclear watchdog as required by the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, said Iranian Atomic Energy Organization deputy chief Mohammad Saeedi,
"Naturally in the future also the agency's access and inspections within the same framework will continue," Saeedi said.
Iran gave the agency more than 200 pages of records last June, but IAEA officials said their worries remain.
"Our questions are there and they need to be addressed. There is no point in writing them again every week. We are just awaiting their response," said one high-level official. "But we have a long vacuum of communication now" (Tom Leonard, London Telegraph, Nov. 20).