North Korea's recent behavior in its relations with South Korea and the United States might indicate an increased interest in diplomacy with at least one of its longtime antagonists, the New York Times reported today (see GSN, Nov. 19).
Responding to South Korean President Lee Myung-bak's hard-line approach to diplomacy, Pyongyang has suspended senior-level diplomacy with Seoul and has indicated that it might close the shared industrial site at Kaesong. That would be a significant blow to Seoul's "sunshine policy," which has provided its neighbor with billions of dollars for food and economic development.
North Korea has also seemingly thrown another wrench into the gears of the denuclearization process, under which it last year agreed to give up its atomic operations in exchange for a host of benefits from China, Japan, Russia, South Korea and the United States. Pyongyang earlier this month denied that it had agreed to allow collection of samples under a U.S.-drafted plan to verify the scope of the Stalinist state's nuclear work.
Experienced observers have said this is normal behavior for North Korea and might suggest that the nation is looking for a strengthened relationship with Washington. Pyongyang historically has sought to conduct multipart negotiations and to obtain the most it can at each component; should that fail, it falls back to brinksmanship.
"North Korea got what it could from [U.S. President George W.] Bush. Now it is signaling to President-elect Barack Obama, 'OK, let's negotiate again over nuclear sampling,'" said South Korean analyst Lee Sang-hyun. "To Lee Myung-bak, its message is that it means action if he doesn't reconsider his policy."
Warming to the United States while cooling relations with South Korea would be intended to heighten tensions between the two friendly nations. Pyongyang attempted a similar effort beginning in 2000, but in reverse -- welcoming then-South Korean President Kim Dae-jung and his sunshine policy to North Korea while regularly lashing out at Bush, who included the Stalinist state in the "axis of evil," the Times reported.
"Obviously the North Koreans decided that they can sacrifice the sunshine policy and show everybody in Seoul that they don't care," said Seoul-based North Korea expert Andrei Lankov. "Meanwhile, we will see spring in the North Korea-U.S. relations" (Choe Sang-hun, New York Times, Nov. 20).
Meanwhile, senior officials from the nations negotiating with North Korea plan a flurry of talks in coming days.
Bush is scheduled to meet with the leaders of China, Japan and South Korea this weekend during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Peru, the Yonhap News Agency reported.
"He will have bilateral meetings with both the president of the Republic of Korea as well as with the prime minister of Japan," said one high-level administration official. "The president will express appreciation for the highly constructive roles both nations continue to play in the six-party talks and will discuss the ways to move that process forward."
In his session with Chinese President Hu Jintao, Bush intends to offer his "appreciation for China's leadership on the North Korea denuclearization issue," according to the official. "They will discuss the importance of an early six-party talks heads of delegation meeting, to reach final agreement on North Korean verification" (Yonhap News Agency, Nov. 20).
The top U.S. and Japanese representatives to the talks are set to meet Tuesday in Washington to discuss the sampling issue and the importance of scheduling a full six-nation meeting, Kyodo News reported (Kyodo News, Nov. 19).
U.S. State Department official Sung Kim, special envoy to the negotiations, is also expected to meet next week in Seoul with deputy South Korean negotiator Hwang Joon-kook, the Associated Press reported (Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Nov. 20).